NOAA, Georgia Sea Grant, Athens, GA, 82 pp. These thresholds correspond to discrete water levels relative to NOAA tide gauges. The Southeast has more days with stagnant air masses than other regions of the country (40% of summer days) and higher levels of fine (small) particulate matter (PM2.5), which cause heart and lung disease.37 There is mixed evidence on the future health impacts of these pollutants. Gonzalez, C. G., A. Kaswan, R. Verchick, Y. Huang, N. Jamhour, and S. Bowen, 2016: Climate Change, Resilience, and Fairness: How Nonstructural Adaptation Can Protect and Empower Socially Vulnerable Communities on the Gulf Coast. The ecosystems of the Mississippi River Delta provide at least $12$47 billion (in 2017 dollars) in benefits to people each year.155 These benefits include hurricane storm protection, water supply, furs, habitat, climate stability, and waste treatment. Partridge, T. F., J. M. Winter, E. C. Osterberg, D. W. Hyndman, A. D. Kendall, and F. J. Magilligan, 2018: Spatially distinct seasonal patterns and forcings of the U.S. warming hole. Day, R. Boumans, and K. Bagstad, 2010: Gaining Ground: Wetlands, Hurricanes and the Economy: The Value of Restoring the Mississippi River Delta. But floods in 1995 led to the evacuation of 250,000 people and the loss of 1 million head of cattle, inspiring planners to seek a better way to manage water. Remote rural communities in the coastal area face fewer employment opportunities and longer distances to urban areas. Recent analyses of historical water levels at many NOAA tide gauges has shown an increase in the number of times that these warning thresholds were exceeded compared to the past. NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Tallahassee, FL. City of Fayetteville, 2017: Arkansans Can Take Steps to Respond to Climate Change. Rising sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity are aspects of climate change that are expected to have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast (Ch. Uncertainties in the range of potential future changes in multiple and concurrent facets of climate and land-use change also affect our ability to predict changes to natural systems. Lovelock, C. E., I. C. Feller, R. Reef, S. Hickey, and M. C. Ball, 2017: Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels. Large ports in the Southeast, such as Charleston, Savannah, and Jacksonville, and the rails and roads that link to them, are particularly vulnerable to both coastal flooding and sea level rise (Ch. A. Knott, and C. M. Oswalt, 2017: Divergence of species responses to climate change. Yates, K. K., D. G. Zawada, N. A. Smiley, and G. Tiling-Range, 2017: Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems. Coalition of Prescribed Fire Councils, 17 pp. Chavez-Ramirez, F., and W. Wehtje, 2012: Potential impact of climate change scenarios on whooping crane life history. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 053. In the Piney Woods, timber, farming, cattle, and oil provide large sources of income. For rural areas located near metropolitan areas, access to urban employment is an important cause of population retention and growth. Higher sea levels will cause the storm surges from tropical storms to travel farther inland than in the past, impacting more coastal properties. Gray, R. Hardy, B. Brost, M. Bresette, J. C. Gorham, S. Connett, B. V. S. Crouchley, M. Dawson, D. Hayes, C. E. Diez, R. P. van Dam, S. Willis, M. Nava, K. M. Hart, M. S. Cherkiss, A. G. Crowder, C. Pollock, Z. Hillis-Starr, F. A. Muoz Tenera, R. Herrera-Pavn, V. Labrada-Martagn, A. Lorences, A. Negrete-Philippe, M. M. Lamont, A. M. Foley, R. Bailey, R. R. Carthy, R. Scarpino, E. McMichael, J. Office of Sustainability, Louisville, KY, 24 pp. Some figures and images are copyright protected. We maintain a massive network of 480+ locations in the U.S. & Gubernot, D. M., G. B. Anderson, and K. L. Hunting, 2015: Characterizing occupational heat-related mortality in the United States, 20002010: An analysis using the census of fatal occupational injuries database. Addington, R. N., S. J. Hudson, J. K. Hiers, M. D. Hurteau, T. F. Hutcherson, G. Matusick, and J. M. Parker, 2015: Relationships among wildfire, prescribed fire, and drought in a fire-prone landscape in the south-eastern United States. Site Map. February 20. 12: Transportation, KM 1; Ch. doi: Fei, S., J. M. Desprez, K. M. Potter, I. Jo, J. Drew, 2001: Productivity and species richness across an environmental gradient in a fire-dependent ecosystem. WebThe Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The population living on the Island has fallen from 400 to 85 people. Island Press, Washington, DC,. 7: Ecosystems).136,137. Houser, T., S. Hsiang, R. Kopp, K. Larsen, M. Delgado, A. Jina, M. Mastrandrea, S. Mohan, R. Muir-Wood, D. J. Rasmussen, J. To sustain economic well-being, rural communities must continue to invest in the productivity of unique assets that support economic development. Urban areas have higher concentrations of CO2, which causes allergenic plants, such as ragweed, to grow faster and produce more pollen than in rural areas.40 Continued rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to further contribute to aeroallergens in cities (Ch. Stone, B., J. Vargo, P. Liu, Y. T. Hu, and A. Russell, 2013: Climate change adaptation through urban heat management in Atlanta, Georgia. Infrastructure, particularly roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage, is vulnerable to climate change and climate-related events (see Key Message 2) (see also Ch. Of the $50 billion, approximately $30$35 billion accounts for wind and flood damage to a combination of residential and commercial properties, automobiles, and boatswith 80%90% of this cost felt in Florida. Terando, A. J., B. Reich, K. Pacifici, J. Costanza, A. McKerrow, and Jaime A. Collazo, 2016: Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA. Fire has historically played an important role in the region, and ecological diversity in many southeastern natural systems is dependent upon fire.115,116,134,189 In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire.3,4,5,6, Hurricanes and rising sea levels are aspects of climate change that will have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast. 8: Coastal, KM 1). Jones, W. D., 1979: Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico. For companies involved in food processing, there are additional secondary economic risks associated with climate impacts on crops and livestock that could alter price or availability.64,255 Facilities that are energy- or water-intensive are more likely to face increases in the costs and decreases in the availability of these resources, with potential impacts to their economic competitiveness.246,255, Energy production, and its dependence on water availability, is a key concern in the Southeast, given the regions growing population and large, diversified economy. U.S. Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, Alexandria VA, 224 pp. 1997. Peachesan important crop in the Southeastrequire an adequate period of cool temperatures, called the chill period, to produce yields that are economically viable. Osland, M. J., L. C. Feher, K. T. Griffith, K. C. Cavanaugh, N. M. Enwright, R. H. Day, C. L. Stagg, K. W. Krauss, R. J. Howard, J. Lane, D. R., R. C. Ready, R. W. Buddemeier, J. WebAgriculture, forestry, and fishing Agriculture is concentrated on the narrow sea-level coastal plain between the Essequibo and Courantyne rivers. Rural communities have benefited from the proliferation of automobiles and improvements in transportation infrastructure, which allow for more rural- to-urban commuting. Seminole Tribe of Florida. 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Clark, J. S., L. Iverson, C. W. Woodall, C. D. Allen, D. M. Bell, D. C. Bragg, A. W. D'Amato, F. W. Davis, M. H. Hersh, I. Ibanez, S. T. Jackson, S. Matthews, N. Pederson, M. Peters, M. W. Schwartz, K. M. Waring, and N. E. Zimmermann, 2016: The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149. The economic status of rural America in the President Trump era and beyond. Osland, M. J., R. H. Day, C. T. Hall, M. D. Brumfield, J. L. Dugas, and W. R. Jones, 2017: Mangrove expansion and contraction at a poleward range limit: Climate extremes and land-ocean temperature gradients. Howard, R. J., R. H. Day, K. W. Krauss, A. S. From, L. Allain, and N. Cormier, 2017: Hydrologic restoration in a dynamic subtropical mangrove-to-marsh ecotone. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 40 (1): 97-118. 2018. Colten, C., 2017: Floods collide with sprawl in Louisiana's Amite River Basin. Policy Report 2. Although the appearance of tropical recreational fish, like snook for example, may be favorable for some anglers, the movement of tropical marine species is expected to greatly modify existing food webs and ecosystems (Ch. Boucek, R. E., E. E. Gaiser, H. Liu, and J. S. Rehage, 2016: A review of subtropical community resistance and resilience to extreme cold spells. Brown, D. G., K. M. Johnson, T. R. Loveland, and D. M. Theobald, 2005: Rural land-use trends in the conterminous United States, 1950-2000. Copy. Several Southeast communitiessuch as Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, Florida; Biloxi, Mississippi; Chatham County, Georgia; and Myrtle Beach, South Carolinahave earned low CRS classes (5 on a scale of 110, with 1 being the best or most insurance premium discount) by implementing freeboard and other regulations that exceed the minimum standards.97, In October 2015, an extreme rainfall event impacted both inland and coastal South Carolina, leading to the largest flood-related disaster in the state since Hurricane Hugo struck in 1989. Marine transportation can be impacted as well. certainty in Key Findings. Wiley, New York,. Stevens, P. W., D. A. Blewett, R. E. Boucek, J. S. Rehage, B. L. Winner, J. M. Young, J. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. 6: Forests, KM 1).217,218,219,220,221,222,223 Drought can also affect aquatic and wetland ecosystems,224 for example by contributing to mortality and ecological transformations in salt marshes,225,226 mangrove forests,227,228,229,230,231 and tidal freshwater forests.232 In addition to drought, extreme rainfall events are also expected to become more frequent and severe in the future. Starr, G., C. L. Staudhammer, H. W. Loescher, R. Mitchell, A. Whelan, J. K. Hiers, and J. J. O'Brien, 2015: Time series analysis of forest carbon dynamics: Recovery of Pinus palustris physiology following a prescribed fire. Batker, D., I. de la Torre, R. Costanza, P. Swedeen, J. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 1).267,268 Although ramps are found all along the Appalachian mountain range, on Cherokee ancestral lands, they are already in their southernmost range. Summer increases in dengue cases are expected across every state in the Southeast. Jacobson, E. R., D. G. Barker, T. M. Barker, R. Mauldin, M. L. Avery, R. Engeman, and S. Secor, 2012: Environmental temperatures, physiology and behavior limit the range expansion of invasive Burmese pythons in southeastern USA. The Coastal Plain Region is usually divided into two sub regions: the Outer Coastal Plain, commonly referred to as the Tidewater; and the Inner Coastal, which is less impacted by the effects of the ocean as it is located further inward. B., 2018: 2017 U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters: A historic year in context. Habeeb, D., J. Vargo, and B. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 3). Wdowinski, S., R. Bray, B. P. Kirtman, and Z. Wu, 2016: Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida. The core of the states peanut, cotton, and vegetable industry is here. Since coastal terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are highly sensitive to increases in inundation and salinity, sea level rise will result in the rapid conversion of these systems to tidal saline habitats. Future temperature increases are projected to pose challenges for human health. Although the agricultural output has been on the U.S. Although it is possible to make general predictions of climate change effects, specific future ecological transformations can be difficult to predict, especially given the number of interacting and changing biotic and abiotic factors in any specific location. van der Wiel, K., S. B. Kapnick, G. J. van Oldenborgh, K. Whan, S. Philip, G. A. Vecchi, R. K. Singh, J. Arrighi, and H. Cullen, 2017: Rapid attribution of theAugust 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, MA, 167 pp. Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA), Las Vegas, NV, 6 pp. A wide variety of adaptation options are available, offering opportunities to improve the climate resilience, quality of life, and economy of urban areas.77,300,301,302,303,304. Hence, the loss and/or replacement of foundation plant species, like salt marsh grasses, will have ecological and societal consequences in certain areas.135,145,157,158,159,160,161,162,163,164 While salt marsh and mangrove wetlands both contain valuable foundation species, some of the habitat and societal benefits provided by existing salt marsh habitats will be affected by the northward expansion of mangrove forests.145,158,160,161,164,165. 11: Urban, KM 2; Ch. Butterworth, M. K., C. W. Morin, and A. C. Comrie, 2017: An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. doi: Cavanaugh, K. C., J. D. Parker, S. C. Cook-Patton, I. C. Feller, A. P. Williams, and J. R. Kellner, 2015: Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion. While recent regional temperature trends have not shown the same consistent rate of daytime maximum temperature increase as observed in other parts of the United States, climate model simulations strongly suggest that daytime maximum temperatures are likely to increase as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.13 The resulting temperature increases are expected to add to the heat health burden in rural, as well as urban, areas.35 Projected temperature increases also pose challenges for crop production dependent on periods of lower temperatures to reach full productivity. Rural Sociology 62 (3): 363-384. B. Meylan, P. A. Meylan, J. Rural counties in the region generally have a diversified economy with a relatively low percentage being heavily dependent on one sector. The Southeast includes vast expanses of coastal and inland low-lying areas, the southern (and highest) portion of the Appalachian Mountains, numerous high-growth metropolitan areas, and large rural expanses. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Dayton, P. K., 1972: Toward an understanding of community resilience and the potential effects of enrichments to the benthos at McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Copyright & Legal Disclaimer Ungerer, M. J., M. P. Ayres, and M. J. Lombardero, 1999: Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Drought and extreme heat can result in tree mortality and transform southeastern forested ecosystems.217,218,219,220,221,222,223 Drought can also affect aquatic and wetland ecosystems.224,225,226,227,228,229,232 Extreme rainfall events are also expected to become more frequent and severe in the future. Irmas intensity was impressive by any measure. As a result, the ecological resources that people depend on for livelihood, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk, and future generations can expect to experience and interact with natural systems that are much different than those that we see today (very likely, high confidence). Lovelock, C. E., K. W. Krauss, M. J. Osland, R. Reef, and M. C. Ball, 2016: The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate. Easterling, K.E. Gill, S. E., J. F. Handley, A. R. Ennos, and S. Pauleit, 2007: Adapting cities for climate change: The role of the green infrastructure. Where climatic thresholds are crossed, certain ecosystem and landscapes will be transformed by changing winter air temperatures. A., L. S. Kutner, and J. S. Adams, Eds., 2000: Precious Heritage: The Status of Biodiversity in the United States. In addition, land and water resources in the coastal region will support further development as long as economic activity is in balance with the capacity of these natural systems. B. Smith, W. Perkins, L. Jantarasami, and J. Martinich, 2015: Climate change risks to US infrastructure: Impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage. NDRC, 2016: National Disaster Resilience Competition (NDRC): Grantee Profiles. 1 U.S. Census Bureau. In fact, the majority of the non-metropolitan counties in the coastal region have lost residents since 2010. Scott issues updates on Hurricane Irma preparedness. Horney, J., M. Nguyen, D. Salvesen, C. Dwyer, J. Cooper, and P. Berke, 2017: Assessing the quality of rural hazard mitigation plans in the southeastern United States. McKee, K. L., I. The Mesa brand of liquid and solid colorants has a legacy of quality and reliability. Littell, J. S., D. L. Peterson, K. L. Riley, Y. Liu, and C. H. Luce, 2016: A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States. Abkowitz, M., J. Over time, the population growth rates of metropolitan counties have increased in comparison with non-metropolitan counties. Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL, 20 pp. Warming ocean temperatures due to climate change are expected to have a large effect on marine and coastal ecosystems (Ch. Tallahassee, FL. Evans, J. M., J. Gambill, R. J. McDowell, P. W. Prichard, and C. S. Hopkinson, 2016: Tybee Island: Sea level rise adaptation plan. Kopp, R. E., A. C. Kemp, K. Bittermann, B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, W. R. Gehrels, C. C. Hay, J. X. Mitrovica, E. D. Morrow, and S. Rahmstorf, 2016: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era. Books, 2003: Modeling mangrove forest migration along the southwest coast of Florida under climate change. Detection and attribution of flood events are difficult due to multiple variables that cause flooding. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 214 pp. 20: U.S. Caribbean).33,34 The Southeast is also the region with the greatest projected increase in cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease under both a lower and higher scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).35,36, Poor air quality directly impacts human health, resulting in respiratory disease and other ailments. Privacy Policy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Atmospheric Programs, Washington, DC, 93 pp. The Southeast region experienced high annual average temperatures in the 1920s and 1930s, followed by cooler temperatures until the 1970s. When this happens, corals lose their color and die in a process known as coral bleaching (Ch. In the future, this flooding is projected to become more serious, disruptive, and costly as its frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time (Ch. Twilley, R. R., S. J. Bentley, Q. Chen, D. A. Edmonds, S. C. Hagen, N. S.-N. Lam, C. S. Willson, K. Xu, D. Braud, R. Hampton Peele, and A. McCall, 2016: Co-evolution of wetland landscapes, flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain. Supplement to State of the Climate: National Overview for June 2017. The Port of Jacksonville provides raw material for industries, food, clothes, and essential goods to Puerto Rico, thus impacting the U.S. Caribbean region, as well (Ch. The Southeasts diverse natural systems, which provide many benefits to society, will be transformed by climate change. Many recreational fishery populations in tropical coastal areas are freeze-sensitive138,174,175,176,177,178 and are, therefore, expected to move northward in response to warmer water and air temperatures. The Southeast Coastal non-metropolitan area includes Beaufort, Bladen, Carteret, Columbus, Duplin, Greene, Harnett, Lenoir, Robeson, Sampson, Scotland, and Wilson counties. The rainfall sparked inland flooding that led to three dam breaches and the destruction of countless roads and homes (see Figure 19.13 showing flash flooding impacts to inland roads). Diop, E. S., A. Soumare, N. Diallo, and A. Guisse, 1997: Recent changes of the mangroves of the Saloum River Estuary, Senegal. NOAA NCEI, 2018: Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [web page]. Sustain Louisville, 2017: 2016 progress report. Perica, S., D. Martin, S. Pavlovic, I. Roy, M. S. Laurent, C. Trypaluk, D. Unruh, M. Yekta, and Geoffrey Bonnin, 2013: Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States. Tallahassee, FL, 113 pp. Wiki User. What is the industry for Atlantic Coastal Plain? While all regional residents and communities are potentially at risk for some impacts, some communities or populations are at greater risk due to their locations, services available, and economic situations. Hauer, M. E., 2017: Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape. High-amenity rural areas typically have experienced substantial economic and population growth. A. The differing trends in hot days and warm nights reflect the seasonal differences in average daily maximum and average daily minimum temperature trends. For example, the distribution of tropical herbivorous fish has been expanding in response to warmer waters, which has resulted in the tropicalization of some temperate marine ecosystems and decreases in the cover of valuable macroalgal plant communities.179 A decrease in the growth of sea turtles in the West Atlantic has been linked to higher ocean temperatures.237 The impacts to coral reef ecosystems have been and are expected to be particularly dire.
