Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. Looking for the Live House Forecast? Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. Maggie Astor In Ariz., Mont., Neb. The results of this seat-by-seat analysis were consistent with the national forecast from the generic ballot model. , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. Lazaro Gamio Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. All 3 predictors had highly significant effects, with state presidential partisanship having the strongest influence. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. The first polls are closing in Indiana and Kentucky. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Prediction: Fetterman wins by 1-2%, 50-49 Democrats WISCONSIN: Mandela Barnes vs. Ron Johnson For several years, Johnson indicated he would not seek re-election in 2022, but here I am writing about him. However, this has become increasingly difficult, as partisan polarization has deepened. 1.2 Close races. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. People are ready to fight. John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio Table 4 presents data on the 16 Senate contests in which the model predicted the wrong winner. 3 See also. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Jason Kao In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Nov. 17, 2022, The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. Adjusted Poll Average. Im Fivey Fox! NV ) Create Your Own Map. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. . Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the states popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Nov. 10, 2022, Support for the abortion proposal was stronger than support for reelected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, in 76 of the states 83 counties. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. See the rest of our predictions. Nov. 8, 2022, If Democrats hold onto two seats leaning their way, they will need to win three additional tossup seats to maintain control of the Senate. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. WebPredictions for Every 2022 Senate Race by one of the Nation's Most Accurate Forecasters in 2020. Nov. 9, 2022, Cortez Masto is behind in Nevada at the moment, but there are a lot of votes left in Clark and Washoe, counties home to the state's largest cities. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington. Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Indeed, we would narrowly favor Republicans to win in Nevada and Wisconsin, though both races remain extremely tight. Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. . Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? Click here to change which version of the model you see. Source: Data compiled by author. Abortion rights fired up Democratic voters, and MAGAs hostility toward democracy and embrace of Donald Trump drove swing voters away from the GOP, puncturing the red-wave fantasy. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. Nate Cohn Dont punish people for it. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. Late victories in Nevada and Arizona deal another blow to the Republicans, and to Donald Trump, On top of his other flaws, the former president is a serial vote loser, Several sorts of extremism may have prevented the party from securing a more convincing victory, In a reverse of recent trends, they may have slightly underestimated Democrats, Published since September 1843 to take part in a severe contest between intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing our progress.. Throughout the 2022 elections, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg offered up a counterintuitive diagnosis: Confident GOP predictions of a red wave werent just wrong, they were designed to deenergize Democratic voters with negative sentiment. He insisted Democrats would ignore this script and that MAGA extremism would alienate the mainstream. Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, historical voting data, and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. Alicia Parlapiano Much is riding on the 2022 midterm elections: the fate of President Joe Bidens agenda, leadership in state capitals across the country and a potential 2024 comeback by former President Donald Trump. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. | Privacy Policy, The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis. It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Read more After facing credible charges of child molestation, Moore went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones, a civil rights lawyer and former U.S. Attorney. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? Looking for the national forecast? We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. We just got all the way up to 55 percent in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Lazaro Gamio But 2022 will be a steeper climb. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Nate Cohn Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Maggie Astor The most recent examples of Republican candidates losing races they should have won occurred in 2020 when the GOP lost 2 contests in Georgia and another in Arizona by margins ranging from 1-3 points that they should have won by about 7 points according to our model. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. Meanwhile, Republicans are in the hunt in Colorado and Washington State though both are rated Lean Democratic. It would take a larger GOP wave than is currently apparent for Democratic Sens. Nov. 8, 2022, The early vote in Arizona has been strong for Democrat Mark Kelly, but we expect a good portion of the in-person and late-counted mail vote to favor Blake Masters. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. Several other special elections held concurrently with the general election are included, as well as the 2017 Alabama Senate special because it was only contested once during the 2018 cycle the seat was next contested as a regular election in the 2020 cycle. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. Lazaro Gamio Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillips. Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote, Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base which is good! Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Georgias Senate race might culminate in a runoff election on Dec. 6 if no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote. Races to watch include those in the 17th, 18th, 19th and 22nd Congressional Districts, as well as the contest for governor. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, how those places have voted in previous elections and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate. Albert Sun Incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth was first elected in 2016, defeating Republican incumbent Mark Kirk. The GOP is still favored to hold open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, rated Lean Republican.. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Heres what the vote count could look like this year. You deserve to hear our thinking. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. November 8 , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. The party that wins two of the Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. Maggie Astor Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. Jennifer Rubin: Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. RacetotheWH launched in 2020 and on average,it was closer to the final resultthan the traditional gold standard, Nate Silvers FiveThirtyEight. and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor.
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